Thursday, October 27, 2011

A Review of the Arab Spring

The Arab Spring continues apace as one Islamic Dictator after another falls to popular uprisings. The US has either quietly stayed on the sidelines as in Egypt and Iran or played an active role as in Iraq and Libya. Although US involvement in Libya was sort of a one off since it was conducted via NATO which is a military euphemism for the US. The US along with the western powers see these uprisings as an effort by the people to be free and struggling for democratic representative government. While these uprisings may establish new representative governments any resemblance to any western style democratic government is wishful thinking. The western powers seem incapable of grasping the realities of the Middle East and Islam. In spite of the politically correct position of the US government and the West, the reality is Christendom ( read the West) is engaged in religious war with Islam.

The Obama administration has declared that all American Troops will withdraw from Iraq. For the anti-war crowd this appears as a victory instead of the disaster it may be because to the Islamic community they won and have succeeded in driving American Forces out of Iraq. Iraq is not politically stable and that instability is being driven by Iran whose objective is to create another Islamic Nation dominated by Iran. It is almost a certainty the current government cannot remain in power once the US leaves and any new government will be Islamic, not secular, and certainly anti-American and anti-Christian.

Currently the West is celebrating the fall of the Gadhafi Government with the belief (read hope) that the new government will be democratic, pro-west, and secular. The first step of the new government was to declare Sharia Law. Of course this doesn’t mean that will stand because like most of the Arab nations, Libya is tribal and each of these tribes is now fully armed and struggling to gain power. It is probable that Libya will remain unstable for the foreseeable future but regardless of who finally emerges as the new dictator he will not be secular or democratic but Islamic and certainly not pro-west. Abdul Jalil – the head of the Libyan transitional government has already announced that he intends to establish Sharia Law in Libya – thus firmly returning Libya to the 8th Century.

The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia died recently and now who will be the new Crown Prince is undetermined but the probability is that the logical candidate Prince Nayef Bin Abdul Aziz will be chosen. Saudi Arabia is strictly Islamic and rules with Sharia Law. World opinion has increasingly pressured Arabia to abandon or at least not enforce some of the more barbarous parts of Sharia. While Saudi Arabia has supported the US in some ways that support has largely been because the Royal family is not loved and needs international support. This is why the current Saudi government has been softening its enforcement of Sharia. If Aziz comes to power there is little doubt but he would return to the strict enforcement of Sharia law and reduce his support for the US. With Aziz in power Saudi Arabia could become very unstable and it is feasible that the Monarchy could fall and be replaced by an Islamic dictator.

As a further example of the failed US foreign policies we have Syria. The US was quick to step into Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya and to support the uprisings in Egypt but have done nothing to support the uprising in Syria. It is no secret that Syria has a well organized and capable military and Assad is supported by Iran. If the people of Syria by some miracle manage to overthrow Assad, can the US expect their support? Not very likely but if Assad manages to suppress his opposition which he is likely to do, he will be indebted to Iran and Hezbollah. He would then pose an even greater threat to Lebanon and Israel. What the US policy is toward Syria has never been very clear and the failure to support the rebels in Syria will strengthen the current government just as it did in Iran and America will once again appear to be an unreliable friend.

Iran is actually Persia and at various times in history Persia has been a mighty empire and it seems clear that the current government is intent on re-establishing that empire, if not directly certainly indirectly. As the Arab Spring progresses Iranian influence has spread from Iran across Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. How Turkey, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia react to this is to be determined but the intransigence of America cannot make them overly comfortable in relying on America and that is before Iran gains nuclear power, which they are sure to do. And when they do gain nuclear capability there is no doubt they will use it as intimidation on all of the Islamic Middle East in their bid to re-establish the Caliphate and the Persian Empire. In the meantime the American public should not be so quick to celebrate the Arab Spring as an example of the rise of democracy because these governments are not going to resemble anything like western democracies and with a Nuclear Iran as the central power a major military confrontation may not be far off.

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