Although I am a great admired of Harry Truman the man, I am much less impressed with some of his legacy, namely the United Nations and NATO. Like so many progressives (read socialist or neo-Marxist) I’m sure he labored under the impression that he was establishing a foundation for world peace. Many at the time thought that WW II was a result of the failure of the League of Nations and America’s failure to join. This of course is the typical reaction by France and Britain as they refuse to ever assume any responsibility for the disasters they created in Africa and the Middle East with their arrogance and meddling. Their unjust treaty of Versailles was the direct cause for the rise of Hitler and the desire of the Germans to retaliate against their oppressors. It is highly unlikely that even if America had joined the League of Nations WW II could have been avoided. But certainly President Truman must have felt that his United Nations would provide a forum to prevent any future wars. Of course he was proven wrong even in his life time.
The United Nations has morphed into a corrupt organization that is nothing more than an impotent debating club where nothing ever gets done and their peace keeping activities not only have universally failed to keep the peace but seem to have no function whatsoever other than cosmetic. This organization has become dominated by Islamic States led by strongmen, Presidents for Life, and terrorists like Arafat masquerading as heads of state. Yet the United States continues to participate in this charade which is bad enough but the US is expected to pay for its demonstrable anti-American activities. This is a failed organization that has clearly outlived its usefulness, must like that other misguided dream of Truman’s – NATO.
NATO was created in 1949 for the collective defense of Europe – aimed primarily at defending Europe from the Russian colossus to the East. In fact the role of NATO was summarized by the first Secretary General as “the purpose of NATO is to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down”. While that may be a flippant remark it is also painfully accurate but in that accuracy also lies the truth that it is no longer relevant, a burden on the US military, and a constant irritant to the Russians. Russia is no longer the USSR and generally thought of as no longer being a super power, but that is just whistling in the dark. Russia is and has always been powerful and while it is distracted now as it grows into something similar to a democratic state, it is not a military threat to Western Europe.
The Germans have grown into a major economic power with an invisible military. Germany dominates Western Europe and the Euro-zone economically while France and the majority of Western Europe sink into their socialist quagmire of entitlements, over taxation, and irrelevance. So the only real function of NATO is to “keep America in” meaning that NATO is in fact just the United States acting under the euphemism called NATO. It is America that funds NATO and it is American soldiers who act under its banner. The military and defense budgets of Europe are virtually non-existent and their military is hardly capable of defending themselves much less providing any meaningful support to any joint activity like Afghanistan, Iraq, or Libya. The military support coming from these NATO nations is at best cosmetic because with the exception of the UK they do not conduct active military operations in any major way. In general their troops are kept away from any real danger, because their governments can barely accept any military involvement and they participate only to keep the American money flowing into their military and NATO.
The fact is that America can no longer nor should any longer be expected to keep the peace world wide. If Europe needs defending then the Europeans should do it themselves and pay for it themselves. If South Korea needs to be protected from the North then they should do it with their troops and their money. If they think they need UN protection then let the UN field and pay for the troops not America. What purpose is served by maintaining a major military presence in Germany and Japan? These represent a drain on the American treasury and a misuse of American Troops that could be used more effectively in other places. NATO has seen its day and that day has past. It is an expensive anachronism and no longer serves America’s interests.
Showing posts with label NATO. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NATO. Show all posts
Sunday, June 19, 2011
Sunday, December 05, 2004
A Strategic Glimpse at Ukraine
The situation in Ukraine is creating some consternation among the deep thinkers in the Think Tanks and while I think there is some cause for concern I think that at least some of this consternation is not only misplaced, I think it includes at least some underlying view that America is imperialistic. However, while it is tempting to beat that tired old liberal drum once again, it is probably more productive to take a strategic view.
The underlying attitude seems to be that the Ukraine is a buffer state between Russia and the west with the west being NATO. Many of the former Soviet States have already joined NATO and others may join in the future – possibly Ukraine. With NATO sitting on its western border, Russia would then be defenseless and surrounded by American spheres of influence to the west and south. This is an untenable position for Russia so they cannot allow Ukraine to move into a western orientation – i.e. join NATO, but is this conclusion valid?
Certainly, Russia would like to restore its former power and once again become a power capable of balancing American power. The Ukraine is vital to that strategy for two reasons. First it was the intellectual capital of the USSR and secondly, it also was the breadbasket. It also formed a buffer state between central Russia and the West and it is this fact that seems uppermost in the minds of the think tankers, but is it relevant?
I think the idea of buffer states is a little quaint and has little relevance in modern warfare. This idea is predicated on the idea that wars of the future will be fought between nation states using vast armies of men moving en masse as they have in the past. Personally, I think the Gulf War was the last of the wars of big battalions. We have aircraft capable of flying nonstop to anywhere in the world and returning. We have missiles that can strike at will anywhere in the world – as do the Russians. So what role does a buffer state have in that type of scenario? Increasingly battles are fought with special forces at strategic points, not using massed divisions sweeping across territories like the Mongol Horde. At one time irregulars were viewed as poor soldiers not capable of inflicting great harm or overcoming organized opposition, but this is no longer true.
In Viet Nam the special forces – or irregulars played an important role and began to change the face of warfare. Since that time these irregulars have become mainstream and SecDef Rumsfeld is remaking the American Army with these special forces as the core. This is being copied by military worldwide. The current battles in Iraq are largely being fought with irregulars and certainly the major threat today is the Islamic radicals who are an irregular force. Therefore, the idea that Russia needs and must have a buffer state between its borders and NATO doesn’t seem to be a crucial or strategic issue, but a political and economic one.
The real strategic threat to Russia – if there is one – is the EU. Some of the former Soviet Republics have joined the EU and if the Ukraine were to look westward the EU would represent a greater threat than NATO. While it is true NATO is a military organization it was originally created as a counterweight to the USSR. Since that no longer exists, NATO has much less relevance and it increasingly viewed as a sort of central police force. The real threat to Russia is from the EU and the economic power it represents. If the Ukraine orients itself to the West and Europe then economic ties to the EU are unavoidable. Russia is struggling to throw off the shackles of communism but as anyone can see they are having a difficult time. Putin is increasingly becoming a dictator – a virtual Tsar in the making. The economy of the country is in a shambles through corruption and the legal system continues to be just as corrupt as it was under the communists. With the Ukraine under the influence of Russia then the Ukraine does indeed become a buffer state but not necessarily a military one but an economic one. If the Ukraine forges ties with the EU then capitalism – or at least what passes for capitalism in Europe – will bring greater economic growth to Ukraine as well as social and political order. This event will not be wasted on the Russians and thus the Russian government could become unstable – meaning that the reformed communists and their criminal allies could be in jeopardy.
So while the deep thinkers are not totally wrong in their geo-political thinking I think the real threat to Russia is more pragmatic and rooted not in military issues but economic ones.
The underlying attitude seems to be that the Ukraine is a buffer state between Russia and the west with the west being NATO. Many of the former Soviet States have already joined NATO and others may join in the future – possibly Ukraine. With NATO sitting on its western border, Russia would then be defenseless and surrounded by American spheres of influence to the west and south. This is an untenable position for Russia so they cannot allow Ukraine to move into a western orientation – i.e. join NATO, but is this conclusion valid?
Certainly, Russia would like to restore its former power and once again become a power capable of balancing American power. The Ukraine is vital to that strategy for two reasons. First it was the intellectual capital of the USSR and secondly, it also was the breadbasket. It also formed a buffer state between central Russia and the West and it is this fact that seems uppermost in the minds of the think tankers, but is it relevant?
I think the idea of buffer states is a little quaint and has little relevance in modern warfare. This idea is predicated on the idea that wars of the future will be fought between nation states using vast armies of men moving en masse as they have in the past. Personally, I think the Gulf War was the last of the wars of big battalions. We have aircraft capable of flying nonstop to anywhere in the world and returning. We have missiles that can strike at will anywhere in the world – as do the Russians. So what role does a buffer state have in that type of scenario? Increasingly battles are fought with special forces at strategic points, not using massed divisions sweeping across territories like the Mongol Horde. At one time irregulars were viewed as poor soldiers not capable of inflicting great harm or overcoming organized opposition, but this is no longer true.
In Viet Nam the special forces – or irregulars played an important role and began to change the face of warfare. Since that time these irregulars have become mainstream and SecDef Rumsfeld is remaking the American Army with these special forces as the core. This is being copied by military worldwide. The current battles in Iraq are largely being fought with irregulars and certainly the major threat today is the Islamic radicals who are an irregular force. Therefore, the idea that Russia needs and must have a buffer state between its borders and NATO doesn’t seem to be a crucial or strategic issue, but a political and economic one.
The real strategic threat to Russia – if there is one – is the EU. Some of the former Soviet Republics have joined the EU and if the Ukraine were to look westward the EU would represent a greater threat than NATO. While it is true NATO is a military organization it was originally created as a counterweight to the USSR. Since that no longer exists, NATO has much less relevance and it increasingly viewed as a sort of central police force. The real threat to Russia is from the EU and the economic power it represents. If the Ukraine orients itself to the West and Europe then economic ties to the EU are unavoidable. Russia is struggling to throw off the shackles of communism but as anyone can see they are having a difficult time. Putin is increasingly becoming a dictator – a virtual Tsar in the making. The economy of the country is in a shambles through corruption and the legal system continues to be just as corrupt as it was under the communists. With the Ukraine under the influence of Russia then the Ukraine does indeed become a buffer state but not necessarily a military one but an economic one. If the Ukraine forges ties with the EU then capitalism – or at least what passes for capitalism in Europe – will bring greater economic growth to Ukraine as well as social and political order. This event will not be wasted on the Russians and thus the Russian government could become unstable – meaning that the reformed communists and their criminal allies could be in jeopardy.
So while the deep thinkers are not totally wrong in their geo-political thinking I think the real threat to Russia is more pragmatic and rooted not in military issues but economic ones.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)