After reading various articles and books plus listening to the news, and then observing the economic situation both nationally and internationally, I have arrived at some conclusions. Naturally these could be totally off base and have no relationship to reality, but then maybe not. Certainly it should be clear to everyone that not only are we in a serious economic situation but that we are in the throes of significant change politically, economically, and culturally. So these are simply my personal conclusions regarding what I think are some key areas of change and impact.
Energy
The drive within the US for many years has been to achieve independence from fossil fuels, meaning oil and natural gas, but in reality independence from oil imports. The focus has been on electric autos which to date have proven to be overly expensive and hugely unpopular. However, that is basically a technical problem which can and will be overcome so the long term problem is our electrical infrastructure. The Greens have prevented the construction of nuclear power plants while campaigning against coal powered energy. Unless the congress corrects this problem the price of electricity will skyrocket as thousands of electric vehicles hit the road. Even without these electric cars the price of electricity is already increasing and in some areas the supply struggles to meet the demand. My long range forecast is that while the demand for gasoline decreases the cost of gas in the family budget will be replaced by the cost of electricity and there will be shortages in the near term if congress allows the Greens to approve the Kyoto treaty which would reduce our supply of electricity as generating plants are forced to close.
Oil and OPEC
The price of oil is plummeting and efforts by OPEC to drive the price up will probably be futile at least in the near term. The problem is that the oil producing countries of Venezuela, Iran, Nigeria, and the Emirates have virtually no source of income outside of oil. These oil revenues support their socialist programs and as the price of oil drops their spending far exceeds their income. Consequently through OPEC they have tried to increase the cost of oil by reducing the supply. But there is no honor among thieves so while they agree to reduce the supply of oil the reality is only the Saudi’s do so the actual supply of oil continues to exceed the demand. The result of this hasn’t manifested itself yet, but within the next year OPEC will become nothing more than a hollow shell with each member going their own way while giving lip service to the agreements.
Iran & Venezuela
Both of these countries are unstable but perhaps the most unstable of the pair is Iran. The Mullahs have instituted Sharia Law and enforce it capriciously. They execute homosexuals, adulterers, and women who have been accused of “immoral conduct” – usually without trial. They are Saber rattling but as it turns out much of their vaunted military is unreliable. Their missile program turned out to be mostly an Adobe Photoshop exercise. By using Shia Iraqi soldiers as bait the managed to surround an American patrol with the objective of kidnapping them and holding them hostage in order to embarrass the US. Instead, they American officer who was surrounded by Iranian soldiers ordered his men to open fire. The Iranians turned and ran off leaving eleven dead. There is great unrest among the population and the more restrictive the government becomes the more unsteady the population and the more demands for change. In the meantime their principal source of income is oil and with the plummeting oil prices they can no longer fund their social programs much less their military machine. The best course of action for the US is inaction and possibly increased diplomatic contact. The Mullahs need us to be aggressive toward them and they will undoubtedly continue provocations but we must not allow ourselves to be provoked.
Venezuela is a little more stable but Chavez is systematically wrecking the economy with his socialist programs. The black market is rampant and Chavez is looking for some outside force that he can blame for his problems. Currently this is the US but without his oil income and with his socialized businesses dropping like stones he is driving for total power. This country is subject to an internal revolution by the military. The problem with soldiers is that they have parents and families. If they aren’t happy the soldiers become unreliable. Chavez will continue his drive for total power as dictator but as the price of oil declines he will be forced into either curtailing his social spending or continuing to pump oil in an effort to maintain his revenues. Either way Venezuela will be very unstable as well as his future. Once again our best course of action is no action.
China
It seems pretty clear that China as a communist nation is on very unsteady ground. As they creep more and more into capitalism the communist power structure moves ever closer to Imperial China in practice. Central planning had never worked and is not working in China. Corruption is rampant which has greatly impacted their foreign exports plus weakening the grip of the government on the people. Their exports are declining, unemployment is increasing, and their economy which depends on growth is declining. The Chinese have always been an agrarian economy and the country peasants have always been frugal as well as secretive and prone to ignoring the central government. Nothing has changed and the peasants are not spending so the revenues are dependent on foreign exchange. However, as these decline revenues decline and as these decline the government’s grip on power is threatened since they cannot continue their social programs or control the people who are moving ever more toward capitalism and individual action. It is unlikely the current communist government can continue for any extended period as it is currently structured. Most likely it will become more capitalist oriented with the central government looking more and more like Imperial China with a socialist structure similar to what you see in Europe.
Showing posts with label Venezuela. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Venezuela. Show all posts
Saturday, December 13, 2008
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
THE RICH, THE POOR, AND THE REFORMERS
Civilization as we know it probably began in the Middle East and probably in Mesopotamia or Egypt. These societies were agrarian with each family farming for itself – essentially a subsistence life. However, very quickly these societies divided into farmers and craftsmen and not long after that came military and governors. Of course the governments and the military were consumers not producers so the society had to support them in the form of taxes. Naturally as the society continued to evolve it began to stratify into classes with the military and officials becoming the upper class, the nobility, and the rich. The point of this obvious historical review is to point out that mankind has always been divided into the rich and the poor and that wealth has never been equally distributed. In fact the very idea of equality much less egalitarianism is a relatively modern concept.
Nevertheless this idea that business, businessmen, and capitalists are evil and that the primary purpose of government is to distribute the wealth of society equally. The underlying principle seems to be that the capitalist has no right to the profits because those profits are earned by the workers he employs, therefore, the revenues generated by the business rightfully belong to the workers. Because these capitalists are reluctant to return the profits to the workers who earned them it is the responsibility of government to seize those profits and redistribute them to the workers. The fact that this has never worked in practice is ignored by these social activists who generally have never actually had to earn a profit or been accountable for the results of their decisions. Currently we see this philosophy being employed by Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. He has seized the assets of foreign investors, fixed prices, over employed people, and then blames the US and others for the failure of his policies. The standard of living is declining, goods are disappearing, and while prices are fixed the items are only available on the black market. This result was first observed under the Emperor Diocletian. Lessons from history don’t seem to be learned by social activists.
Of course the most famous of these social reformers was Lenin, who corrected the abuses of the aristocracy by slaughtering all who disagreed with him, seizing all methods of production, confiscating all revenues in the name of the state, and eliminating private property. Theoretically this was supposed to take the revenues generated by the workers and return the wealth to the workers equitably. Of course as George Orwell observed in his famous satire “Animal Farm” some animals are more equal than others. In practice the wealth was not distributed equally but along selective party lines and the result was the stratification of society into the rich and the poor – a fact either ignored or denied by the social activists who even today believe Marx was right and Lenin failed to implement Communism correctly. Hugo Chavez seems to be one of those who think Lenin was wrong and Marxism is right. His failures to make Marxism work he attributes to interference by the US.
But these are the obvious actions of these social reformers whose failures are highly visible. However, there are social activists among us today who still believe in the tenets of Marxism but don’t use such inflammatory names; instead they call for social reforms through legislation. This began with the infamous book “Silent Spring” by Rachel Carson. This book was later determined to be a hoax but the damage was done, industries ruined, and DDT was banned. Of course the damage to public health was ignored in favor of the animals which were alleged to be endangered by DDT. This was followed up by various other efforts at social reform and perhaps the most famous was the ban on smoking. Any empirical ties between smoking and cancer remain statistical even though the incidence of lung cancer has remained steady even as the number of smokers declines. But these were just warm-ups for the social reformers because they really are after business and the rich. These are their real targets because they truly believe that the rich have no right to what they earn as long as there are people living in poverty.
They are attacking capitalism as evil and as allowing the wealth to be concentrated into fewer and fewer hands. They believe that the profits earned by a corporation should be shared with the workers through profit sharing and not distributed to the shareholders – who of course capitalized the business to start with. The idea that it was the capitalists who created and grew the business is ignored. The workers wouldn’t have jobs and there would be no revenues much less profits to share without the capitalists who funded the enterprise initially. These social reformers rarely have actually run a business or have held positions where they were required to earn a profit. Instead, they are opposed to layoffs as a cost cutting measure because in their eyes that is immoral. For them the socialist ideal of employment over efficiency and profit is what should drive industry, not return on investment.
These are the people who are horrified at the “obscene” profits being generated by the oil companies. What is being ignored is the difference between gross revenues and net profits, but this subtlety is ignored in their drive for wealth distribution which is and always has been their objective. This is the whole purpose of the graduated income tax – it is a legislated method to strip the wealth from those who earn it and redistribute it in the form of handouts to those who did not. These are the people who feel that there is something morally wrong with some people being rich while others are poor. They never make the connection between decisions, lifestyle, responsibility and wealth. Those who work hard and make responsible decisions prosper and those who do not suffer the consequences of their bad decisions and efforts to redistribute the wealth to the poor has historically only resulted in increasing the number of poor and lowering the quality of life for everyone. The reality is there are poor and there are rich and there has always been this dichotomy and every effort to form an egalitarian society has failed.
Nevertheless this idea that business, businessmen, and capitalists are evil and that the primary purpose of government is to distribute the wealth of society equally. The underlying principle seems to be that the capitalist has no right to the profits because those profits are earned by the workers he employs, therefore, the revenues generated by the business rightfully belong to the workers. Because these capitalists are reluctant to return the profits to the workers who earned them it is the responsibility of government to seize those profits and redistribute them to the workers. The fact that this has never worked in practice is ignored by these social activists who generally have never actually had to earn a profit or been accountable for the results of their decisions. Currently we see this philosophy being employed by Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. He has seized the assets of foreign investors, fixed prices, over employed people, and then blames the US and others for the failure of his policies. The standard of living is declining, goods are disappearing, and while prices are fixed the items are only available on the black market. This result was first observed under the Emperor Diocletian. Lessons from history don’t seem to be learned by social activists.
Of course the most famous of these social reformers was Lenin, who corrected the abuses of the aristocracy by slaughtering all who disagreed with him, seizing all methods of production, confiscating all revenues in the name of the state, and eliminating private property. Theoretically this was supposed to take the revenues generated by the workers and return the wealth to the workers equitably. Of course as George Orwell observed in his famous satire “Animal Farm” some animals are more equal than others. In practice the wealth was not distributed equally but along selective party lines and the result was the stratification of society into the rich and the poor – a fact either ignored or denied by the social activists who even today believe Marx was right and Lenin failed to implement Communism correctly. Hugo Chavez seems to be one of those who think Lenin was wrong and Marxism is right. His failures to make Marxism work he attributes to interference by the US.
But these are the obvious actions of these social reformers whose failures are highly visible. However, there are social activists among us today who still believe in the tenets of Marxism but don’t use such inflammatory names; instead they call for social reforms through legislation. This began with the infamous book “Silent Spring” by Rachel Carson. This book was later determined to be a hoax but the damage was done, industries ruined, and DDT was banned. Of course the damage to public health was ignored in favor of the animals which were alleged to be endangered by DDT. This was followed up by various other efforts at social reform and perhaps the most famous was the ban on smoking. Any empirical ties between smoking and cancer remain statistical even though the incidence of lung cancer has remained steady even as the number of smokers declines. But these were just warm-ups for the social reformers because they really are after business and the rich. These are their real targets because they truly believe that the rich have no right to what they earn as long as there are people living in poverty.
They are attacking capitalism as evil and as allowing the wealth to be concentrated into fewer and fewer hands. They believe that the profits earned by a corporation should be shared with the workers through profit sharing and not distributed to the shareholders – who of course capitalized the business to start with. The idea that it was the capitalists who created and grew the business is ignored. The workers wouldn’t have jobs and there would be no revenues much less profits to share without the capitalists who funded the enterprise initially. These social reformers rarely have actually run a business or have held positions where they were required to earn a profit. Instead, they are opposed to layoffs as a cost cutting measure because in their eyes that is immoral. For them the socialist ideal of employment over efficiency and profit is what should drive industry, not return on investment.
These are the people who are horrified at the “obscene” profits being generated by the oil companies. What is being ignored is the difference between gross revenues and net profits, but this subtlety is ignored in their drive for wealth distribution which is and always has been their objective. This is the whole purpose of the graduated income tax – it is a legislated method to strip the wealth from those who earn it and redistribute it in the form of handouts to those who did not. These are the people who feel that there is something morally wrong with some people being rich while others are poor. They never make the connection between decisions, lifestyle, responsibility and wealth. Those who work hard and make responsible decisions prosper and those who do not suffer the consequences of their bad decisions and efforts to redistribute the wealth to the poor has historically only resulted in increasing the number of poor and lowering the quality of life for everyone. The reality is there are poor and there are rich and there has always been this dichotomy and every effort to form an egalitarian society has failed.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Critical Thinking and Politics
The question that continues to arise is “does anyone think critically anymore?” We are now treated on an almost daily basis to pictures of teenagers and college students waving placards and cheering for Obama. The media dutifully reports this without questioning what all of the cheering is about. The young Senator is for “change” and that seems to be all that is required to electrify the youth – out with the old and in with the new without regard for what is being tossed out and what is being brought in – other than its new. It is time a little critical thinking is employed when it comes to Obama. The media very carefully never challenges him or asks difficult questions and this has become so pervasive and obvious that even Saturday Night Live has parodied this, but when Senator Clinton tries to simply go with the flow on this, the same media attacks her. But the topper came with Obama’s idiotic statement regarding Iraq and Al Qaeda. The Senator proudly announces – when he finally begins to be a little more specific about the “changes” he intends to make – that he would immediately withdraw all American Troops from Iraq and let the natives duke it out. Then if Al Qaeda set up a base in Iraq then he would send the troops back.
Hello – is he so ignorant or so confident of the lack of critical thinking and understanding of the events during the last ten years by his youthful supporters that he honestly thinks that Al Qaeda ISN’T already in Iraq? Has the media taken this opportunity to point this salient fact out to the Senator? Has the media or anyone in that cheering crowd stopped to think that if we immediately withdraw from Iraq, Al Qaeda will not establish a base there because they already have a base there and they will seize the opportunity to regroup and flood the country with another round of murder, intimidation, and destruction. Then the US will have to send troops back in – under the command of Obama – at another huge cost in lives and treasure. If anything ever demonstrated his total lack of experience and unsuitability to be president – this one statement is it. Has the media or his band of rosy cheeked supporters challenged him on this? Not a chance – they simply gloss over it and the cheering and the parade moves on to what they clearly think will be his coronation next January.
But this lack of critical thinking isn’t limited to Senator Obama but the entire media seems to have eliminated any idea that their role is to challenge authority. Instead they seem to now believe that their role is to advance their own agendas, which increasingly seem to rest on emotion and are devoid of any concept of history, economics, and even political theory. The most recent, but certainly not the first nor the last, is the mess in Venezuela. Hugo Chavez rose to power promising the poor that he would eliminate their poverty and break the backs of the capitalists. To that end he fixed prices, nationalized industries, has driven out all of the foreign capitalists, suppressed the press, and launched diversionary attacks on the US. It is the diversionary attack on the US that has enamored the American left with him who did not waiver even when he announced he really wasn’t a “socialist” but a “Marxist”. If anything this self-evident announcement made him even more attractive to the American media and political left.
Well the chickens are coming home to roost, because Venezuela now has a shortage of food, the foreign capitalists are suing Venezuela for the cost of their property seized by Chavez, shortages are everywhere, the quality of life – even for the poor – has declined, and in the classic move by Marxists – he is blaming everyone but him self and his policies. Price controls were tried by the Emperor Diocletian, it failed, and of course he blamed everyone but his policies and himself. Richard Nixon tried to fix prices in the 1970’s which had the same result – shortages. Does the media challenge or even acknowledge the failed policies of Chavez? No indeed, they focus on his attacks on the US, US policies, and his threats regarding the oil companies and their efforts to recover the investments that he stole.
Then of course we have the tired old football being kicked around once again by the left and the media and that is “healthcare”. There is no doubt that the Healthcare system in the US is terrible but the media and left continue to call for government run universal healthcare, without once actually critically examining the results in other countries where the government has taken over the healthcare system. In Canada and the UK waits for critical surgery can be months or even years. In one recent case in Canada a pregnant woman was told the first available appointment with a specialist was in 10 months. In the UK the government control left them without sufficient doctors so they enticed foreign doctors into the country while incentivizing students to go to medical school. Now they have too many doctors and are trying to force the foreign doctors out. This was a failure of central planning when applied to Healthcare, but once again these obvious shortcomings of socialist style programs are ignored because critical thinking is not a strong point by either the media or those that believe the government can do anything efficiently.
Critical thinking is definitely in trouble because no one seems willing to point out that the Emperor has no clothes.
Hello – is he so ignorant or so confident of the lack of critical thinking and understanding of the events during the last ten years by his youthful supporters that he honestly thinks that Al Qaeda ISN’T already in Iraq? Has the media taken this opportunity to point this salient fact out to the Senator? Has the media or anyone in that cheering crowd stopped to think that if we immediately withdraw from Iraq, Al Qaeda will not establish a base there because they already have a base there and they will seize the opportunity to regroup and flood the country with another round of murder, intimidation, and destruction. Then the US will have to send troops back in – under the command of Obama – at another huge cost in lives and treasure. If anything ever demonstrated his total lack of experience and unsuitability to be president – this one statement is it. Has the media or his band of rosy cheeked supporters challenged him on this? Not a chance – they simply gloss over it and the cheering and the parade moves on to what they clearly think will be his coronation next January.
But this lack of critical thinking isn’t limited to Senator Obama but the entire media seems to have eliminated any idea that their role is to challenge authority. Instead they seem to now believe that their role is to advance their own agendas, which increasingly seem to rest on emotion and are devoid of any concept of history, economics, and even political theory. The most recent, but certainly not the first nor the last, is the mess in Venezuela. Hugo Chavez rose to power promising the poor that he would eliminate their poverty and break the backs of the capitalists. To that end he fixed prices, nationalized industries, has driven out all of the foreign capitalists, suppressed the press, and launched diversionary attacks on the US. It is the diversionary attack on the US that has enamored the American left with him who did not waiver even when he announced he really wasn’t a “socialist” but a “Marxist”. If anything this self-evident announcement made him even more attractive to the American media and political left.
Well the chickens are coming home to roost, because Venezuela now has a shortage of food, the foreign capitalists are suing Venezuela for the cost of their property seized by Chavez, shortages are everywhere, the quality of life – even for the poor – has declined, and in the classic move by Marxists – he is blaming everyone but him self and his policies. Price controls were tried by the Emperor Diocletian, it failed, and of course he blamed everyone but his policies and himself. Richard Nixon tried to fix prices in the 1970’s which had the same result – shortages. Does the media challenge or even acknowledge the failed policies of Chavez? No indeed, they focus on his attacks on the US, US policies, and his threats regarding the oil companies and their efforts to recover the investments that he stole.
Then of course we have the tired old football being kicked around once again by the left and the media and that is “healthcare”. There is no doubt that the Healthcare system in the US is terrible but the media and left continue to call for government run universal healthcare, without once actually critically examining the results in other countries where the government has taken over the healthcare system. In Canada and the UK waits for critical surgery can be months or even years. In one recent case in Canada a pregnant woman was told the first available appointment with a specialist was in 10 months. In the UK the government control left them without sufficient doctors so they enticed foreign doctors into the country while incentivizing students to go to medical school. Now they have too many doctors and are trying to force the foreign doctors out. This was a failure of central planning when applied to Healthcare, but once again these obvious shortcomings of socialist style programs are ignored because critical thinking is not a strong point by either the media or those that believe the government can do anything efficiently.
Critical thinking is definitely in trouble because no one seems willing to point out that the Emperor has no clothes.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Foreign Policy
Recently we have been treated to a virtuoso display dissimulation by the Prime Minister of Iran and a breathtaking display of the anti-American attitudes found on the liberal campuses of America. Coincidentally I have been asked to sit in on a discussion of American Foreign Policy by a private discussion group who are increasingly concerned about several foreign policy issues, but first Iran.
Iran
There is no doubt but that Iran is a terrorist state established by and in control of Islamofascists. But of all of the Islamic States Iran is perhaps the one with the largest educated population. Their population is relatively young on average, generally pro-west if not pro-America, and very restive. While the world is focused on the Iranian Government and its drive to gain nuclear weapons and drive the Americans out of Iraq, the Iranian government is struggling internally to maintain control and that is becoming more difficult everyday as the youth of Iran resist the Mullahs and their strict moral codes that are not shared by more educated people.
The danger is that if the Iranians gain nuclear capability before a more secular government comes to power, then Hamas and other terrorists organizations will gain that capability and would certainly use it against Israel and America. It should be noted that it is quite possible that the Iranians are using their nuclear program to distract America and the UN from the underground nuclear development effort going on in Syria. The Israeli’s bombed this facility but whether or not it was destroyed remains unknown. If this secondary nuclear development can go forward, then the Iranian government may be more open to UN inspections and loosen their control over their people in order to stabilize their government without sacrificing their nuclear ambitions and objective of bringing down America.
China
This is a very interesting topic considering two things -- 1) Bill Clinton is the one who allowed free trade status to the Chinese. He was financially supported by Hsu as was Hillary. Connecting these dots may be impossible but given the sleaziness of the Clinton's it is easy to conclude that there was a Quid Pro Quo between the Clinton's and China. However, China is far from a free or even capitalist society, although it is no longer a pure Marxist state. It is more like the old imperial china than the worker’s paradise promised by Mao and Lenin. The people have few civil rights and although the government is more open to entrepreneurs it is worth noting that they are the major source for copyright violations, product knock offs, and violation of almost every standard of production and safety. They are a rogue nation relative to business standards, civil law, and human rights. The American government as well as the UN gives lip service to China’s violation of human rights and the use of slave labor but no meaningful action has been taken nor is likely to be taken. But this flouting of standards and safety is beginning to catch up with them but I note the US Government is making more excuses than taking any effective action.
Venezuela
Hugo Chavez is a Marxist and only a thinly veiled one at that. He is systematically raping the industry of Venezuela in his drive to redistribute the wealth. He is a living example of how to gain power by promising the take the wealth of the rich and give it to the poor. This was tried by the Roman Emperors and failed. It was tried by Lenin and failed. It has been tried in France and failed. It was tried in Cuba and failed. It has been tried numerous times in Mexico and has failed every time. The reality is that poor people are poor for a reason and taking the wealth away from those who create the jobs and their wealth and giving it to the poor assures the politician of their votes while giving the poor a few dollars and temporary relief. In the long term, the entrepreneurial class is destroyed, the means of wealth generation is destroyed, and the entire country sinks further into poverty. This is true of Venezuela today just as it is of Cuba. For America the problem lies mostly in the production of oil because under Chavez the production has declined dramatically and will probably sink further as he and his Marxist/Socialist cohorts mismanage the oil fields.
Saudi Arabia
The House of Saud has a tiger by the tail. The situation there is analgaous to an obscure protestant sect of snake handlers got control of the US Government and used their resources to convert everyone to their way of thinking. They have created a monster and they don't know what to do. If they stop funding these terrorists they face a civil war which they will certainly lose -- and they may have one anyway. If they continue funding these Madrassas and thus indirectly the terrorists, they risk losing support of the West and thus instigating a civil war. The Saudi Government is VERY UNSTABLE and I seriously doubt they can remain in power much longer. Once they fall, the Muslims will have a choke hold on Western Society -- especially Europe. This will give the Russians an upper hand in Europe and they will become resurgent politically and economically. This is a problem that will be exacerbated if Putin becomes dictator which seems to be his plan. America's dependence on foreign oil will be a problem because much of our oil comes from Venezuela but the mismanagement by Chavez has reduced their output but he is heavily dependent on American oil revenues.
It should be noted that Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Baharain, Quatar, the Emirates, Kuwait, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, and Turkey plus all of North Africa represent the old Islamic Empire that stretched from Spain to India. The Muslims are trying to re-establish that empire under the Caliphate, which historically was seated in Baghdad and unter the Ottomans in Constantinople. The war against the West is only part of the issue because these various leaders are vying for power and the position of Caliph, which is what Saddam was after. It seems clear to me that Spain has already succumbed to the Muslims in all but name and France isn't far behind. The western powers continue to view these countries as countries with secular governments but that is a false assumption. Islam does not recognize any secular power and they make no distinction between the Mullahs and the government. People like Maliki are shams because they have no real power unless the Mullahs say they do.
We are engaged in a religious war and no Muslim can be loyal to ANY government and remain a Muslim. This means that all of these Muslims who exist in our midst represent a huge and growing threat to our stability because when challenged they must side with Islam and NOT the government- any government. Just because these people are American or French, or German citizens does not mean they would support those governments over Islam and the Mullahs. Saudi Arabia is a problem but Iran, Syria, and Palestine are much greater problems right now. There are laws government sedition and it is long past time when those laws should be enforced in America.
Iran
There is no doubt but that Iran is a terrorist state established by and in control of Islamofascists. But of all of the Islamic States Iran is perhaps the one with the largest educated population. Their population is relatively young on average, generally pro-west if not pro-America, and very restive. While the world is focused on the Iranian Government and its drive to gain nuclear weapons and drive the Americans out of Iraq, the Iranian government is struggling internally to maintain control and that is becoming more difficult everyday as the youth of Iran resist the Mullahs and their strict moral codes that are not shared by more educated people.
The danger is that if the Iranians gain nuclear capability before a more secular government comes to power, then Hamas and other terrorists organizations will gain that capability and would certainly use it against Israel and America. It should be noted that it is quite possible that the Iranians are using their nuclear program to distract America and the UN from the underground nuclear development effort going on in Syria. The Israeli’s bombed this facility but whether or not it was destroyed remains unknown. If this secondary nuclear development can go forward, then the Iranian government may be more open to UN inspections and loosen their control over their people in order to stabilize their government without sacrificing their nuclear ambitions and objective of bringing down America.
China
This is a very interesting topic considering two things -- 1) Bill Clinton is the one who allowed free trade status to the Chinese. He was financially supported by Hsu as was Hillary. Connecting these dots may be impossible but given the sleaziness of the Clinton's it is easy to conclude that there was a Quid Pro Quo between the Clinton's and China. However, China is far from a free or even capitalist society, although it is no longer a pure Marxist state. It is more like the old imperial china than the worker’s paradise promised by Mao and Lenin. The people have few civil rights and although the government is more open to entrepreneurs it is worth noting that they are the major source for copyright violations, product knock offs, and violation of almost every standard of production and safety. They are a rogue nation relative to business standards, civil law, and human rights. The American government as well as the UN gives lip service to China’s violation of human rights and the use of slave labor but no meaningful action has been taken nor is likely to be taken. But this flouting of standards and safety is beginning to catch up with them but I note the US Government is making more excuses than taking any effective action.
Venezuela
Hugo Chavez is a Marxist and only a thinly veiled one at that. He is systematically raping the industry of Venezuela in his drive to redistribute the wealth. He is a living example of how to gain power by promising the take the wealth of the rich and give it to the poor. This was tried by the Roman Emperors and failed. It was tried by Lenin and failed. It has been tried in France and failed. It was tried in Cuba and failed. It has been tried numerous times in Mexico and has failed every time. The reality is that poor people are poor for a reason and taking the wealth away from those who create the jobs and their wealth and giving it to the poor assures the politician of their votes while giving the poor a few dollars and temporary relief. In the long term, the entrepreneurial class is destroyed, the means of wealth generation is destroyed, and the entire country sinks further into poverty. This is true of Venezuela today just as it is of Cuba. For America the problem lies mostly in the production of oil because under Chavez the production has declined dramatically and will probably sink further as he and his Marxist/Socialist cohorts mismanage the oil fields.
Saudi Arabia
The House of Saud has a tiger by the tail. The situation there is analgaous to an obscure protestant sect of snake handlers got control of the US Government and used their resources to convert everyone to their way of thinking. They have created a monster and they don't know what to do. If they stop funding these terrorists they face a civil war which they will certainly lose -- and they may have one anyway. If they continue funding these Madrassas and thus indirectly the terrorists, they risk losing support of the West and thus instigating a civil war. The Saudi Government is VERY UNSTABLE and I seriously doubt they can remain in power much longer. Once they fall, the Muslims will have a choke hold on Western Society -- especially Europe. This will give the Russians an upper hand in Europe and they will become resurgent politically and economically. This is a problem that will be exacerbated if Putin becomes dictator which seems to be his plan. America's dependence on foreign oil will be a problem because much of our oil comes from Venezuela but the mismanagement by Chavez has reduced their output but he is heavily dependent on American oil revenues.
It should be noted that Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Baharain, Quatar, the Emirates, Kuwait, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, and Turkey plus all of North Africa represent the old Islamic Empire that stretched from Spain to India. The Muslims are trying to re-establish that empire under the Caliphate, which historically was seated in Baghdad and unter the Ottomans in Constantinople. The war against the West is only part of the issue because these various leaders are vying for power and the position of Caliph, which is what Saddam was after. It seems clear to me that Spain has already succumbed to the Muslims in all but name and France isn't far behind. The western powers continue to view these countries as countries with secular governments but that is a false assumption. Islam does not recognize any secular power and they make no distinction between the Mullahs and the government. People like Maliki are shams because they have no real power unless the Mullahs say they do.
We are engaged in a religious war and no Muslim can be loyal to ANY government and remain a Muslim. This means that all of these Muslims who exist in our midst represent a huge and growing threat to our stability because when challenged they must side with Islam and NOT the government- any government. Just because these people are American or French, or German citizens does not mean they would support those governments over Islam and the Mullahs. Saudi Arabia is a problem but Iran, Syria, and Palestine are much greater problems right now. There are laws government sedition and it is long past time when those laws should be enforced in America.
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